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Ember Heard is ahead in 9 of the 14 races they both run, Expensive Sunlight in 3. Biggest edge: 1600m 24 gate WTA (5.7% vs 4.2%); biggest gap: 1000m 22 gate WTA (4.4% vs 6.1%).
| Race ↓ · distance → | 1000m | 1200m | 1400m | 1600m | 1800m | 2000m | 2200m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1v1 | —not run Middle52% | —not run Bottom 34%50% | Middle52% —not run | Bottom 34%51% —not run | |||
| 6 gate madness | —not run Top 35%52% | —not run Middle50% | Top 35%53% —not run | Middle51% —not run | Bottom 23%48% —not run | ||
| 12 gate madness | —not run Top 18%29% | Top 9%30% Top 29%27% | Top 34%28% —not run | Top 39%27% —not run | |||
| 24 gate madness | —not run Top 11%16% | Top 30%13% Top 21%14% | Top 8%16% Top 19%15% | Top 11%16% Middle13% | Top 15%16% Top 35%13% | Top 35%13% —not run | |
| 4 gate WTA | —not run Top 28%28% | —not run Middle26% | —not run Middle26% | Top 27%28% —not run | Top 38%28% —not run | ||
| 6 gate WTA | —not run Top 37%18% | —not run Top 33%18% | Top 24%20% —not run | Top 34%19% —not run | |||
| 12 gate WTA | —not run Top 33%9.6% | Top 20%11% —not run | |||||
| 16 gate WTA | —not run Top 14%8.2% | Top 8%8.5% Top 19%7.5% | Top 14%8.3% Middle6.3% | Top 19%8.2% —not run | |||
| 22 gate WTA | Top 35%4.4% Top 11%6.1% | Top 31%4.7% Top 21%5.4% | Top 7%6.4% Top 16%5.6% | Top 11%6.2% Top 38%4.6% | Top 20%6.2% —not run | Top 17%5.6% —not run | Top 33%4.6% —not run |
| 24 gate WTA | Top 32%4.3% Top 21%4.9% | Top 8%5.9% Top 16%5.2% | Top 11%5.7% Top 37%4.2% | Top 14%5.7% —not run |
Left = Ember Heard, right = Expensive Sunlight: league rank and chance of earning the point. Green = 10%+ more likely than the other, red = less likely; “not run” = fewer than 3 league races of that race. In 1v1s, h2h is the chance Ember Heard beats Expensive Sunlight head to head.
A round is one race of a map; whoever wins it gets the point. Win % here is the share of rounds won in each segment this Season 01, with each round weighted by how often maps reach it (most maps end by round 27–30).